Early Warning System

IPR’s Early Warning System (EWS) solutions help our clients understand the implications for opportunity forecasts, budgets, and marketing plans using the latest available information and high-frequency data relevant to each marketplace.

IPR’s EWS solutions provide our clients with market alerts and “headlights” capabilities that enable them to foresee and anticipate likely changes in market growth dynamics, enabling them to get ahead of the curve in the market before their competitors.

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The EWS solution for each client is customized to provide surveillance and monitoring of key high-frequency economic and market-related leading indicators expected to most accurately reflect the market landscape in which they operate. These data series are published on a timelier basis than actual quarterly market results and are highly correlated with future growth trends.

Reliable information regarding the most relevant economic, demographic and market-specific measures is constantly being updated, allowing our clients to closely monitor the state of their markets on a monthly basis. IPR leverages its Demographic and Economic Databases while also researching, collecting, and synthesizing other data that is available or supplied by our clients. IPR conducts statistical analyses on a significant number of high-frequency economic and market-specific leading indicators to determine which indicators are most helpful in accurately determining future market growth.

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IPR produces monthly EWS market alerts reports tailored to the needs of each client that provide an executive summary slide deck of the key results for that month, as well as country-specific dashboards that focus on the most important high-frequency leading indicators to enable our clients to visually monitor and evaluate the likely growth dynamics of the markets most relevant to them. These reports also provide a detailed review of the key indicators as well as analyses of the likely implications for market growth in the upcoming quarters based on advanced econometric and machine learning techniques. These analyses are integrated into the market sizing and forecasting efforts of our clients and allow our clients to adjust tactical marketing plans and budgets in response to changing market dynamics faster than their competitors.

Benefits to Our Clients

IPR’s EWS solution provides significant business value to our clients by enabling them to gain deeper insights into the business climate and future market growth.

Clients are able to be proactive in their planning and tactical execution, reacting to dynamic economic and market conditions.

The EWS solution triggers intervention, enables them to be more nimble, and to stay several steps ahead of their key competitors.

Opportunity forecasts, sales targets, marketing plans, and operational tactics can be adjusted quickly in reaction to the monthly EWS headlights and market alerts report.

Monthly Surveillance and Monitoring

As part of our Early Warning System market alerts capabilities, IPR tracks more than two thousand high-frequency series for over 40 major economies relevant to the technology industry on a monthly basis. These series have the following characteristics:

  • The data is readily available from government, trade association, international, and industry organizations
  • The series are updated with a regular cadence on a monthly or quarterly basis
  • The series have been proven to provide a close linkage to market growth in current and future quarters
  • The series have clear deterministic relationships with each client’s markets of interest

IPR’s EWS market alerts solution is customized for each client to provide surveillance and monitoring of key high-frequency economic and market-related leading indicators, as well as other significant events, expected to most accurately reflect the market landscape in which they operate.

The series that are reported by IPR as part of the market alerts dashboard capability are those which appear to be the strongest indicators of the relevant market growth in each model.

Predictive Modeling Capability

In order to support our clients’ need for “headlights” capabilities into the performance of their markets in the near-term, IPR develops customized predictive models using the various economic and market-related indicator series that it tracks on a monthly basis.

The predictive models help our clients assess the implications for market growth several quarters into the future based on a formal quantification of the relationship between the various indicator series and market growth.

IPR employs predictive modeling techniques using machine learning and adaptive optimization of econometric models to quantify the relationships between the high-frequency leading indicators and market growth. Regression models are estimated using optimal lag structures and principal component analysis.

The predictive models are then used to develop short-term forecasts of market growth which enable our clients to get insights into the likely market dynamics and assess whether the existing forecasts used for planning or tactical execution are within acceptable bounds, or whether adjustments need to be made to the existing forecasts, budgets, and/or marketing plans.

More Information

For more information about our Early Warning System solutions, please contact IPR.